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MILAN – The latest report from the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service paints a pessimistic picture for the Colombian coffee production next year. According to the report, Colombia’s coffee production is expected to drop by 5.3% to 12.5 million bags in MY 2025/26, down from 13.2 million bags in the 2024/25 season. This decline is mainly a result of heavy rainfall patterns that are likely to hurt flower maturation and then ultimately production.
However, as the La Niña phenomenon is weakening, with a 75% probability of transitioning to neutral conditions in the second half of 2025, monthly production is projected to return to average levels towards the end of the forecast marketing year, reports USDA ‘s experts. Record high coffee prices are also continuing to discourage renovations and replanting among producers, contributing to a decline in forecasted production.
For MY 2024/2025, Post estimates coffee production up 3.5% to 13.2 million bags green bean equivalent (GBE). Average air temperatures rose for 12 consecutive months starting in the second half of 2023 due to El Niño. According to Colombia’s national center for coffee research, Cenicafé, air temperature deviations averaged between +0.5 and +1°C during this period.
Higher temperatures accelerated coffee tree growth, concentrated flowering, and promoted favorable soil moisture conditions, which improved harvest prospects for young, dense production systems with improved varieties.
Coffee production from October 2024 to March 2025 is up 35% year-on-year. In early 2025, increased rainfall hurt flowering, constraining further production gains for the rest of the current marketing year and the beginning of MY 2025/2026 harvest
USDA forecasts coffee exports to decrease by 4.1 percent from the previous year’s revised estimate to 11.8 million bags for MY 2025/2026 due to forecasted lower production. In MY 2024/2025, revised Colombian coffee exports are up 2.5 percent to 12.3 million bag GBE given a projected recovery in local production.
Colombian coffee is exported to more than 40 countries. The United States remains the major export destination, with a more than 40 percent market share, followed by the European Union, Canada, and Japan (see Graph 4). From October 2024 to February 2025, Colombian coffee exports to the United States, the European Union, and Canada have increased more than 20 percent year-on-year accounting for 75.4 percent of total exports.
Colombian coffee exports to the United States are expected to increase in MY 2024/2025 after five years of decline. Under the U.S. Executive Order 14257 of April 2, 2025, the United States began imposing a 10% tariff on most Colombian goods destined for the U.S. market, including coffee.
However, this is not expected to have a significant impact on U.S. consumption of Colombian coffee, especially given that many major competitors also face an equivalent level of tariff.
On average, Fedecafé exports account for 18% of the total coffee exports, with the remaining 82% being handled by private companies. Procafecol, the company overseeing the Juan Valdez brand, recently signed a strategic partnership with Green Coffee Company Holdings to bolster its foothold in the North American market.
This strategy aims to distribute Juan Valdez roasted coffee products across supermarkets in the United States and Canada, in addition to institutional retail channels operating within both countries.
Roasting Monday - Friday: All of our coffees are always the freshest 100% Arabica imports from current year harvests, importing yearly worldwide. Fresh harvested coffee beans range from full natural processing to wet processing in the mills. Beans are all hand sorted to ensure the highest standards of our products to our customers. Roasted coffee orders are fresh roasted daily (Monday-Friday) and shipped same day as roasted. From farm to cup, and fresh to you to enjoy the brew!
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